Tammy Abraham: Can he reproduce his EFL Championship form of 16/17?


“Excited to start my new chapter this season with @AVFCOfficial lets get this season rocking” – Abraham on signing for Aston Villa

So Steve Bruce finally gets his man. After a waiting game and a fair few meetings with Abraham’s agent and with other parties more than interested in signing the England Under 21 international, Abraham decided on joining Yannick Bolasie and Anwar El Ghazi on season long loans to Villa Park.

Being a Villa fan myself I was chuffed to see the likes of Bolasie and El Ghazi. With Abraham I have my reservations and I have made this clear on my social media channels. Of course I will be rooting for Abraham and by no means is this an article slating the clubs decision to sign him but I hope it gives a bit more of a fuller picture of what he may or may not bring to Aston Villa this coming season.

Chelsea

Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-Abraham to quote his full name joined the Chelsea academy at under 8 level and progressed up through the age groups winning consecutive UEFA Youth League titles and FA Youth Cups in 2015 and 2016 and in doing so scoring 8 goals in 9 matches.

Abraham has scored 74 goals in 98 games encompassing all the Chelsea youth sides he has played in at the time of writing. You would be hard pressed to find many young players with this record.

He made his debut for the Chelsea first team under Guus Hiddink in the 1-1 draw away at Liverpool and then making his home debut starting the game against the newly crowned EPL Champions Leicester City a week later.

Still finding himself down the pecking order at Chelsea meant getting into the starting eleven would be difficult and so at the start of the 2016-17 season Abraham was sent out in loan to Championship side Bristol City.

On fire in the Championship

Abraham came off the bench to score on his Bristol City debut (the goal was later wrongly credited to his City teammate Magnússon). In September he was named Championship Player of the Month (below) scoring 4 goals which also earned him the Young Player of the Month award.

By January Abraham had reached 16 goals and was unplayable at times and was catching the eye of many a Premier League club but interested parties were met with litlle acknowledgment due to the fact Chelsea made it clear there lanky centre forward wasnt for sale.

Abraham’s radar 16-17

Hitting an xG per 90 of 0.42 is not to sniffed at especially in the grind that is the Championship and he exceeded that by scoring at a rate of 0.6 per 90, an excellent return indeed. Abraham played 3425 minutes that season (38 90 minute brackets) and this seemed what helped him achieve such excellent consistency throughout the season.

Bristol City played to Abraham’s strengths something that the other teams he has been loaned out to have not. Dont be fooled by his height and think he needs shedloads of crosses to score goals he has more in his locker than that and it showed at his time at Ashton Gate.

Swansea City 17-18

Abraham playing for Swansea in 17-18

In the July of 2017 Abraham signed a new 5 year contract at Stamford Bridge and then immediately signed on a season long loan to fellow Premier League side Swansea City.

But the move didn’t turn out as well as both parties had hoped with Swansea getting relegated and Abraham having a frustrating season scoring just 5 goals in 21 games.

Abraham’s radar 17-18

Its clear that when we compare the two radars from Abrahams last two seasons we can see how he struggled in a Swansea team that liked to play a possesion based passing game but created very little in terms of goal scoring chances for him and the South Wales outfit ended up pretty much reliant on him.

His goal return for Swansea was poor but more noticeable was his decline in the total number of aerial wins across that season. A big, but not inconceivable, 44 separate aerial duels were lost over the course of the two seasons. Now we know Swansea werent a big crossing of the ball side but this also shows that when it came to the EPL defenders had the better of him the majority of the time.

Don’t get me wrong, Abraham is a threat in the air but equally as good with both feet. With a hold up-turn and shoot style of centre forward play Abraham is able to roll his man on the turn in a Lukaku type movement. With that being said Abraham is often left isolated in games if the style of play isnt suited to his game and being able to adapt to those different styles hasnt always been fruitful.

England’s tall goal threat

I just want to briefly touch on Abraham’s time with the England youth sides of which he has been reasonably successful.

18 goals in 39 games for England youth sides from 2014 up until now is a fairly good return at international level. Abraham will be hoping for more after making his senior debut against Germany in the 0-0 draw last November.

England havent had a tall centre forward since the days of Peter Crouch so Abraham is still a viable option going forward but will he be able to be consistent enough and find some form with a club that suits him?

In summary

Tammy Abraham is still very hit and miss in a lot of people’s eyes.

Whether its been the clubs he has played at or whether certain managers play a style of football that suits him, its not certain what is the best set up and style to get the best out of him but Aidy Boothroyd seems to have got the best out him with the England Under 21’s so maybe Steve Bruce can take some pointers from Boothroyd?

Judging by the 4-1 drubbing away at Sheffield United today Villa need all the help they can get and with Bolasie and El Ghazi providing the anmunition Abraham may have half a chance of replicating that brilliant Championship form from his Bristol City days.

The season ahead at Villa

In my opinion he is best suited in a centre forward pairing (no false nines please) where he can be a target man with flick ons and holding the ball up for lay offs and his ability to pass well for a quicker strike partner.

In terms of formations, and considering the squad Steve Bruce has at his disposal, Abraham could play in a 3-5-2, shown below, (although three centre halves could be a problem now that Tommy Elphick has joined Hull City), or in a 4-4-2. Abraham is not effective as a lone frontman with no coach to my knowledge using him in this way. Can he play with Jonathan Kodija in a two?

Villa in a 3-5-2

Away from home Villa cannot be playing with just Kodija up front on his own, it simply doesnt work anymore maybe this is why Abraham has been brought in?Jedinak will continue at centre back whether we like it or not so now the two wingers have been brought in i believe 3-5-2 or even a variation in a 3-1-4-2 (shown below) is in Bruce’s thinking.

Villa in a 3-1-4-2 formation

The only real other option is one I personally would like to see possibly in the next home game against Rotherham. The 4-4-2 diamond with Grealish at the tip is something I have pushed for for a while now. Its a tad risky with Bree in terms of game time and also Whelan could be left exposed from a Bolasie point of view but McGinn is more than capable of performing defensive duties. One positive is that this shape at least gets the error prone Jedinak out of the back four.

Villa in the 4-4-2 (diamond) shape

Whatever Bruce decides going forward I for one really hope Abraham has a good season and finds his scoring touch so Villa can mount that promotion push once again.

Gareth Cooper

GC Analytics

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